AI ADOPTION MAY HOLLOW OUT ENTIRE PROFESSIONS

Each organization rationally cuts entry-level positions to reduce costs through AI automation. Individually, this improves margins. Collectively, it starves professions of the junior talent pipeline that traditionally develops expertise. The paper argues this creates a coordination problem: no single company benefits from unilaterally maintaining junior positions when competitors eliminate them. Yet the profession-wide consequence is severe—the next generation of experienced practitioners never materializes. The timeline compounds the problem. Expertise gaps won't fully manifest for 15-25 years, long after hiring decisions are made. By then, entire fields may lack mid-career and senior talent with deep practical knowledge. This differs from past automation cycles where new roles emerged elsewhere. AI displacement in knowledge work offers fewer alternative positions, intensifying the expertise deficit. The research suggests policymakers and industry leaders must account for long-term structural damage alongside short-term efficiency gains.