ECONOMISTS MAY MISUNDERSTAND AI'S LABOR THREAT

The standard economic narrative treats AI like the steam engine: disruptive in the short term, but ultimately generative of new jobs and economic growth. However, Imas questions whether this framework applies to artificial intelligence. Historical technological shifts—from mechanization to electrification—displaced workers in specific sectors while creating new demand and labor opportunities elsewhere. The assumption is that AI will follow suit: yes, some jobs disappear, but productivity gains and new industries emerge to rebalance the market. Imas's challenge centers on whether AI represents a genuinely different category of disruption. Rather than automating specific tasks within industries, AI could affect labor markets across sectors simultaneously in ways previous technologies did not. The distinction matters for policy. If AI truly differs from past innovations, traditional reassurances about workforce adaptation may prove inadequate. The conversation suggests economists need to examine whether their historical models hold when a general-purpose technology can replicate cognitive work at scale.