Peter Harrell characterizes the absence of deliverables from recent US-China negotiations as predictable, given the complex leverage dynamics between the two powers.
Harrell notes that mutual leverage—not dominance—defines the US-China relationship. The US wields tariffs, export controls, semiconductors, dollar strength, and AI technology. China counters with rare earths, specialty chemicals, and manufacturing scale.
This balanced positioning explains the recent pivot toward "strategic stability" rhetoric, Harrell suggests. Both nations face incentives to reduce tensions while simultaneously working to decrease economic interdependence.
The lack of concrete agreements reflects deeper structural competition. Neither country can force decisive concessions without risking significant costs. Instead, both are pursuing longer-term strategies to minimize vulnerability in critical sectors.
The emphasis on stability signals not cooperation, but acknowledgment of a stalemate. Negotiations may continue, but breakthroughs remain unlikely until one side gains material advantage or both accept permanent economic decoupling in key industries.
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