UBS analysts say China cannot develop a viable alternative to ASML's extreme ultraviolet semiconductor manufacturing technology within the next decade, cementing the Dutch company's dominance.
China's semiconductor capabilities will not advance fast enough to challenge ASML Holding's cutting-edge extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, according to UBS Group AG research.
EUV technology represents the most advanced chipmaking equipment available. ASML maintains a near-monopoly on production, with export restrictions limiting Chinese access. The technology is critical for manufacturing next-generation processors used in artificial intelligence, data centers, and consumer electronics.
The 10-year timeline reflects the complexity of developing competing EUV systems. The process requires breakthrough innovations in optical components, precision engineering, and system integration that typically take years to achieve.
China has pursued domestic semiconductor solutions through state-backed initiatives and private investment. However, experts say the technical barriers and existing intellectual property challenges make rapid catch-up unlikely.
ASML's dominance provides geopolitical leverage for Western governments. Recent export controls have further restricted China's access to advanced chipmaking capabilities, widening the technological gap between the two nations.
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